Íñigo Cabo Taboada de Zúñiga
1. Abstract
The
aim of this essay is to analyze the effectiveness of international influences
to promote the creation of a modern democracy in Myanmar. First of all, there
is a short historical background essential to understand how Myanmar has
reached this stage and a description of the current state of affairs regarding the
democratic change. After that there is an analysis of the major international
role players and to what extent they are helping or impeding this change.
Finally, to establish the success of the external influences we will analyze
whether the goals set in the Roadmap for democracy have been accomplished or
not.
2. Background
To
understand the complex transition that is still happening in Myanmar towards
democracy it is necessary to have basic historical coordinates about the
countries modern history. It would not be until the end of the 19th century
when Myanmar was occupied by the British after three wars caused by the clash
of the borders between Burma and British colonies. They introduced far-reaching
reforms concerning the civil administration and the economy, which would later
turn against them because the nationalist movements mainly took place in the
universities in the 1920's instigated by Buddhist leaders.
After
the Japanese invasion during World War Two, the Myanmarese finally won their
long sought independence and created a democratic government that only lasted
for fourteen years before there was a military coup headed by Ne Win. He would
start a period of various military dictatorships that would last from 1962 to
2010 (The Economist, 2014) .The civil unrest
caused by a continued economic downturn in 1988 was ended in a blood bath but
it started a very slow movement towards democracy that still carries on today
represented by the Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. The military junta has
stepped down from power but they still hold very important positions in the
government, for example in both the upper and the lower house 25% of seats are
reserved for representatives of the military. Currently the country is one of
the most undeveloped nations in the world and it is the fifth worst country in
Asia in the Human Development Index (United Nations Development
Programme, 2014) .
3. Political
transition
From
2002 the military government deeming necessary a change towards a
liberalization of the country started a series of measures like lifting the
house arrest that had been imposed to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and in
2003 General Khin Nyunt published a document named Roadmap to
Discipline-flourishing Democracy which was a seven step process to reduce the
military influence in the country. The program consists on the following
phases:
·
First Phase - To reassemble the National Convention,
which had been suspended since 1996.
·
Second Phase - To implement step by step the requisite
tasks for the founding of a democratic system when the National Convention has
been successfully concluded.
·
Third Phase - To draw up a draft constitution based on
the general concepts and detailed principles advocated by the National
Convention.
·
Fourth Phase - To hold a national referendum in order
to endorse the draft constitution.
·
Fifth Phase - To hold free and fair elections for the
formation of the required national legislative bodies (Hluttaw).
·
Sixth Phase - To convene the meeting of elected
representative to the Hluttaw.
·
Seventh Phase - The leaders, government and
authoritative bodies elected by the Hluttaw to continue with the task of
constructing a new democratic state.
As
of 2014, Myanmar has made significant advances towards its goal, for example Aung San Suu Kyi after being arrested for
many years now holds a seat in Parliament. Many other political prisoners have
been released and civil liberties and free speech has also been strengthened. To
exemplify this, there are political gatherings of opposition parties
unthinkable a few years ago. Multinational coroporations like Coca Cola have
started to become a common sight in local shops and foreign investors are
becoming more attracted to this relatively virgin land that is experimenting
economic growth.
On the other hand a quarter of its 664 members of the parliament
are members of the military as required by law, making it very hard for the
opposition to pass any law that reduces the military influence in the
government, creating therefore a paradox because the only ones that have the
power to reduce the military influence are precisely the ones taking advantage
of it. Another crucial fact is that the only opposition leader with enough
power to become a solid presidential candidate, Aung San Suu
Kyi, has been banned for the presidency because her children have British
nationality which is unconstitutional for a president. Therefore, this measure
greatly weakens any sort of unified struggle for change because the political
groups are greatly divided among local and ethnic leaders. The pressure on this
leader is great and close followers of her have been tortured and assassinated.
Other
problems that prevent Myanmar to become a modern democratic nation are ethnic
conflicts that rip apart the country and even though the economy is growing
steadily, it is still far behind many of its neighbors. The economic freedom in
the country is merely a utopia and religious conflicts and radicalization is
increasing worryingly.
4. Foreign interests
When
it comes to Myanmar there are two global superpowers that are playing a decisive
role in the way that this wave of changes is heading. These countries are the
two opposing forces that rule the international relations sphere, the US and
China (Sun, 2014) . Even though they
have different specific interests regarding the outcome of the reforms, they
both are equally concerned about having an ally in the historically decisive
region of South East Asia.
The
United States has three main reasons to influence in Burma: security, democracy
and economic power. First and foremost, the geopolitical location of Burma
between two important members of the BRICS, India and China, is critical
regarding the military strategy of the US. Due to the sanctions that have been
applied to Burma by western powers it has reached an alliance with China,
creating yet another setback for American geopolitics in the region. But with
the Obama administration these balance of power is moving towards the US in its
efforts to encircle China with American allies (Kuok, 2014) , therefore its
support for democracy as the opposition leader is more favorable towards
western powers than the previous leader. Finally, economic power is important
in the sense that the more democratic Myanmar becomes, the more open to
American corporations it will be. The way America has helped the opposition is
mainly through international sanctions the previous years and the public
support of their leaders with visits from the President and the Secretary of
the State to Myanmar.
China
has various interests in Myanmar that can be summarized in four points:
- ·
Due to the fact of Myanmar being a neighbor of China,
the Chinese government
- · A number of oil and gas pipelines run through Burmese territory and many of them cross the regions with ethnic conflicts so it is vital for China that the region is peaceful in order not to disrupt its energy policy.
- · China wants to protect its investments in the country in mineral resources and infrastructure
- · The Chinese government does not want the US to have a close ally so close to its borders
As we can see, Chinese interests do not have any interest whatsoever in
a change of regime because they have dealing successfully with the military
junta for an extended period of time and a change of government to a weaker
more democratic one with interests aligned with western powers it is very
prejudicial for their international policy. Even though this change of regime
is bad for Chinese interests, the government has understood that is inevitable
and it has supported the military made (Alistair, 2013) Roadmap to democracy
to ensure that the military still enjoy sufficient power to maintain the
previously good relationships with China. Therefore it still maintains strong
military and economic ties to slow down the government loose of grip (Beech, 2014) .
To summarize, we have seen why and how are the US and China shaping
Myanmar internal policies to benefit their own international standings in the
South East Asian region. Obama’s strategy has been effective in the short term
because it has reduced China’s power and it has increased democracy, but it
faces serious issues on the long run because the reforms are very slow and the
military control seems unchangeable because of the Constitution and China’s
support. There are several measures that the US can take to further strengthen
the change like supporting the government economically in exchange of
democratic reforms and support other leaders than Aung San Suu Kyi, because it
too symbolical and it wouldn’t allow a moderate transition. As far as China is
concerned, it needs to act now to counteract these latest successful American
measures, for example by reaching to ethnic an d local parties that hold
tremendous power in the country so they do not solely depend on the support of
the dying military groups.
References
·
Alistair,
D. (2013). Chinese Perceptions and Interests in a transitional Myanmar.
Singapore: East Asian Institute.
·
Beech, H. (2014). Burma's Backward Steps. Time, 36-39.
·
Haacke, J. (2012). Myanmar: now a site for Sino-US
geopolitical competitition? London: London School of Economics.
·
Kuok, L. (2014). Promoting Peace in Myanmar. Center for
Strategic & International Studies.
·
Sun, Y. (2012). China and the Changing Myanmar. Journal of
Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 51-77.
·
Sun, Y. (2014). Myanmar in US-China Relations.
Stimson.
·
The Economist. (2014). The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Obtenido de
http://country.eiu.com/myanmar
·
United Nations Development Programme. (2014). 2014 Human
Development Report. Obtenido de
http://hdr.undp.org/en
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